From hxjofzc@263.net Fri May 28 09:01 MET 1999 Date: 28 May 1999 04:55:30 -0000 Message-ID: <19990528045530.25740.fmail@263.net> From: hxjsdzc@263.net To: hxjofzc@tonghua.com.cn Cc: hxjofzc@263.net Subject: Kosovo and Chinese Embassy Dear Sr. My English is poor, so if there are some unfit word, pardon me please. Off and on, I wrote three essays in Chinese: 'What is behind the Kosovo warfare (99.03.25)', 'Kosovo --- falling of the European Union and the Split of the NATO (99.04.05)', 'The reason of bombing Chinese embassy (99.05.08)'. The third essay is written at 8 May 99, several hours after the attack to Chinese embassy in Yugoslavia. You can comprehend that there is fervent emotion in the essay. The word is too fervent to read, although I think my view is right. Therefore, I do not translate the third. If you want to know what it said, you can find an interpreter, and then the emotion in the translated essay will be smooth. What is behind the Kosovo warfare? Seemingly, the act of air raid on Kosovo is for the humanism. In fact, the United States is carrying out a plan to deter the development of Europe. USA will take great advantage. After the cold war, the competition between capitals is becoming increasingly tense. For example, The Asian financial crisis, which might not be made by USA, occurred last year. However, the World Bank, which is manipulated by USA, worsened the crisis by delaying to offer loans to those countries which were badly hit by the crisis. By intention or not? Only God knows. As far as we know, the economy of USA is at its best with Dow Jones index rising all the way. The ASEAN capitals, which once had been the potential threat to the American capitals, now can not threat USA, furthermore need a few years to recover. The Gulf War is another example from which USA gained a lot. Ever since the end of the Gulf War, the oil price fell gradually. Being the world biggest oil consumer, USA saves a big money. Maybe it was reasonable to remain army at the Gulf in the past, but now more and more people do not agree this act again. 'Oh, take it easy, don't worry about it!' the American will say like this. Because if there is American army at the Gulf, there will have no stability at the Gulf, and the oil price will not increase, and USA will keep on gaining. Now, there has no cry for energy crisis in USA. There is the Gulf crisis, so nobody will be afraid of energy crisis. Now here comes the Kosovo crisis. Balkan, the barrel of explosives, is in war. If there is no peace in Kosovo, there is no peace in Yugoslavia and there is no peace in the neighboring countries, and whole Europe will not be stable again. Then, the European capital can not focus on growing any longer and the European capital has no chance to grow faster than the American's does. Let the Europeans stuck in the troubled water. USA can march on to the Asian market, African market and even the European market. Let us look around the world. Who can compete with USA in economy? Europe and Japan are the only two rivals of USA. Japan is too small to grow, so it is not the real rival. The Europeans have worked for decades to have their European Union, but as there is whole mess in Kosovo, there is no grow of the European capital, and the Union for Europeans is useless. The European capital is not a rival any more. What will USA lost? First, some unlucky soldiers will die. Second, the world public opinion will blame USA. Third, the public opinion of USA will blame government and some parades against warfare will come off. At most, the American government who can not deal with the matter in the future will resign. By any means, any actual important vantage will not be paid out. What we must impress is, if tactic is made by heart, all the defects we refer upward will be avoided. The investment is so small and the interests are so large, whoever will miss this kind of chance? As we know, the Bosnia and Montenegro crisis has not brought bankruptcy to European economy. Now Kosovo crisis will help. European economy will be depressed for years ahead and even will be bankrupt forever. By then, the Americans can not help laughing in their dreams. In Europe, some countries participate in the bombing of Kosovo. What can they get from it? Being sold by the others, you help to count money for the sellers. The Americans are the troublemakers instead of peacekeepers. By setting fire on Kosovo, USA can achieve the following three goals: selling their weapons, letting the Europeans challenge the Russians, deterring the European economy. If I were Bill Clinton, I would like to fish in the troubled water, why not. Poor Balkan people. Who would take care of them? Kosovo --- falling of the European Union and the Split of the NATO The world is developing toward multi-pole forces and this is the trend of the history. USA learns that it is impossible to prevent this trend. He also learns that it is possible to delay this trend, or to occupy the advantage position in the future world of multi-pole forces through striking his rivals hard. Of course, this effort must be under the premise of not hurting his profits nowadays and in the future, Which force could be the first threaten of USA? Is it China? Maybe China could be the biggest rival in political propaganda, but actually, it is not. China is still a developing country. USA could not be such a fool for ignoring this fact. He just takes China as pretence. Could it be Russia? It could only be the opponent against USA in military, not a threat in economy at all. If war really occurred, USA could defeat Russia very quickly in economy. Then, it must be Japan. But Japan could only be a rival more in economy than in military. What is more is that Japan is totally under USA military control through TDM plan and US-Nippon security pact. There is only European Union, which can challenge USA in economy, politics, military and culture. For example, as soon as Euro comes into currency circulation, US dollars faces its opponent. While the European integrity goes on smoothly, Germany has gained confidence from its neighbors by trying every means to wash out its dirty records in the Second World War. France wants to share power with USA over the control of NATO. The Europeans has set up Euro-Asian Conference. USA will lose control of whole Europe. USA will not allow this thing to happen. The America will never let an opponent to sleep beside his bed. USA is not willing to solve the Kosovo problem peacefully. If Kosovo is in turmoil, the Balkan is in turmoil, and so is the whole Europe. Therefore, the integrity of Europe will be delayed, and so is the development of Europe. Ever since the very beginning of NATO bombardment on Kosovo, the result of the warfare is clear. USA is the winner while the Europe is the loser. USA makes good use of NATO to invade a sovereign country Yugoslavia. The invasion will drag Europe onto the route of decay. USA takes big risk to go into war just to gain much bigger interests. Euro is no longer as strong as before. Of course, the western European countries have their aims in this crisis, but it is too puerile by contrast with USA. NATO-allies are a good name, but are not a good thing. For the sake of USA interest, USA carried out the Marshal Plan to help the western European countries after the Second World War. Now, for the sake of USA interest, has USA drawn up another plan to deter the development of Europe or not? Kosovo affair offered an opportunity for USA to depress its allies. USA will certainly not miss this good opportunity. Knowing that its real interests are in danger, European Union will not be cheated for long. The countries around Kosovo are suffering from the warfare. The interests of the European Union are against that of USA. While EU is trying its best to get the situation in Kosovo under control, USA is managing to make the matter worse. NATO will go split. There are three possibilities. A. The best policy is that some NATO countries such as France and Germany establish a new European security organization with Russia at once and keep UK and USA outside. The continental European organization will solve the Kosovo crisis by independently. They will not allow USA to interfere the European affairs. They will get Europe recovered from the crisis. This is the best strategy. For the relation of the European with USA, this kind of possibility is not so realistic. B. Another possibility is that EU will set up its own military organization passively. With NATO under the leadership of USA, the Kosovo crisis will be prolonged and European economy development will be affected. With the pressure of this affected, Some NATO countries will say good-bye to NATO too. In this situation, the European economy will have been affected deeply by the crisis. The invasion will have dragged Europe onto the route of decay. It is difficult to restore the status of EU in the world, but there is still some chance. This is a middle strategy. C. The third possibility is that the European NATO members all remain, and all the EU countries fall into the Kosovo crisis. There will be three results: First, the European NATO members will incur great expense in the Kosovo war. Second, they also will have to face a new cold war with Russia and they will be the shields of USA. Third, the development of European economy will depend on USA like the situation after the Second World War. The European NATO members should keep in mind what USA had done in African Somali. Once the situation in Kosovo become worse and worse, USA will run away, of course under the internal pressure of American people. Then the burden will rest upon EU to make the wrong thing right and this will break away with NATO. When this will be a fact, perhaps some countries will want to set up its own military organization, but it will only be a dream. At all events, NATO will split. Whatsoever it is ostensible or not, the split will be materially at least. It is only a matter of time. Which possibilities will the EU choice? The reason of bombing Chinese embassy 轰炸中国大使馆的原因 99.05.08 第一个问题:谁干的? ①三枚导弹,或者是精确制导的巡航导弹,或者是精确制导的激光炸弹,这不可能是误炸。 ②这是蓄意行为,但是,北约成员国中,亲善中国的不少,而且,这种政治冒险,不可能经过广泛讨论才决定,只可能由直接指挥北约军队的人秘密安排。 ③美国事实上控制着北约的实权,因此可以肯定,这是美国蓄意直接制造的。 第二个问题:轰炸的后果可能怎样? ①轰炸中国大使馆,当然造成中国与北约的对立。 ②这种对立,当然会促进中俄合作的深入。 ③极可能引发科索沃武装冲突的升级。 ④因为俄罗斯在经济上可能得到中国的支持,这样,极可能促成北约与俄罗斯的直接武装冲突。冲突的升级,当然可能引发第三次世界大战:美欧为一方,俄中为另一方,日本可能偏向美国,印度可能倒向俄罗斯。 第三个问题:美国不怕这种局面的发展吗? ①美国的力量,还不足以对抗整个世界,但是,它实力超群,只要与国际上某一股势力联合,就足以控制世界,这是美国的最大利益所在。 ②但是,这种联合,必须以美国主导,独霸天下才是目的,所谓的伙伴,顶多只能做共享福的走狗。美国根据现在自己独木难支的局面要求,其一,这狗不能有伙伴,而且最好是四处树敌,这样,它不想当狗也不成,其二,这狗要咬不了主人,想收拾它就能收拾它,其三,这狗也要够狠,咬谁一口都受不了。 ③国际上真正在政治、经济、军事、文化上都足以让人不可忽视的力量,有三个,一是尤有余威的俄罗斯,二是如日中天的欧盟,三是来日方长的中国。 ④俄罗斯向来不甘人下,而且,核武器的实力,令美国根本不可能在根本上控制他。 ⑤中国外交政策直接就说要独立自主,而且,向来善于韬光养晦,在夹缝中生存发展,虽然美国试图与中国建立战略伙伴,一东一西,控制全球,但是,中国始终不那么听话,一想到未来中国的强势,到那时,谁指挥谁都说不准,美国就不肯与中国联合,养虎为患。 ⑥欧盟要搞大欧洲,但是,其一,统一的进程还未成气候,只要美国参与其中,表面上统一了又怕啥,美国依然可以想收拾他就收拾他,其二,传统上的北约机制,就是美国主导的,现在充分利用一下,就可以把欧盟变成打手,其三,欧盟的实力,已经直逼美国,需要打击一下,但是,余下的实力也仍然足够美国使用。只是,欧盟朋友太多,一,欧盟与东盟交好,二,德国与俄罗斯交好,经济上联系密切,三,欧盟与中国交好。这让美国很头疼。 ⑦亚洲经济危机一闹,很好,东盟自顾不暇,欧盟与他好就好吧,已经不可怕了。用北约的名义把科索沃问题一搅,第一,欧洲的实力被适当地削弱,第二,俄罗斯与欧盟已经事实上走上了对立的道路,欧盟的这个朋友,再不会是真心朋友了。现在,我美国再以北约的名义,轰炸中国大使馆,嘿嘿,谁也脱不了关系,看你们欧盟怎么跟中国好下去。事情发展到现在,欧盟,被北约的名义拖在水里泥里,想不跟美国跑,哪儿那么简单?! ⑧至于引起武装冲突,哈,这怕啥,在战争中,欧洲想不当走狗都不成了,越打越对立,越打越不可能和解,以我美国的实力,在这种局面中,只可能得利,不可能吃亏。至于世界大战,我美国怕打,难道俄罗斯中国不怕吗,就算打起来,晚打不如早打,若俄罗斯恢复元气、中国发展起来反而麻烦。如果我美国做不了天下,干嘛留给别人,要完蛋大家就一起来吧。 ⑨美国想的,是美国主导,欧、日做刀剑、做走狗,世界做鱼肉、做奴隶,美国要建立这样的世界新次序。因此,轰炸中国大使馆,逼迫中国主动与欧盟对立,逼迫欧洲做美国的走狗,这是美国精心策划的大战略,最符合美国的利益。 第四个问题:政治冒险尤如围棋中的胜负手,一着得利,可能扭转乾坤,一着失手,也可能一败涂地,美国的阴谋能得逞吗? ①首先要看中国的反应,如果中国顺理成章地反对轰炸、反对北约,进而理所当然地反对美国和欧洲,好,我美国已经搞了与日本的安保条约,也明目张胆地在人权会议上搞反华议案,再对立对立,怕什么,好在是欧洲终于被拖下了水,嘿嘿,欧洲,投向我美国的怀抱吧。那么,中国能上这个当、帮敌人的忙吗? ②欧盟根本不可能甘心做走狗而不独立自强,他们当然努力向中国解释,但是,一,他们要认清美国的用心,二,他们要放下架子,主动示好,三,他们要尽快摆脱北约这一牢笼。他们能做到吗? ③必须强调,一定要小心英国!疯狂奉行连横政策的英国,极可能就是这次轰炸事件中躲在美国背后的黑手,从历史上看,凡是与英国相关的事情(除了香港回归),别人总是中了英国的暗箭。英国靠着狐假虎威的本事,虽然脸面丢尽,帝国早已日落,但是,仍然能在实际利益上不受大的损伤。美国的三权分立制度,虽然吹得神乎其神,可正如柏拉图所说的,极端的民主制,是最糟糕的政治制度,成事不足,败事有余,要不是老奸巨滑的英国与美国狼狈为奸,单凭美国,根本折腾不出个一二三来。 __________________________________________________ 欢迎使用首都在线免费电子邮箱http://freemail.263.net